Published 2023-03-17
Keywords
- Student Mobility,
- Gravity Model,
- Radial Model,
- Germany,
- Student mobility data
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2023 Marie-Louise Litmeyer, Philipp Gareis, Stefan Hennemann
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Accepted 2023-03-17
Published 2023-03-17
Abstract
Classically, gravity models have been used to estimate mobility flows. However, in recent years, a number of new models, such as radiation models, have been introduced to estimate human mobility. The focus has generally been on models dealing with commuting movements. There is no systematic application of different versions of the laws of gravity to student mobility. The application of these models to student mobility provides the opportunity to calculate reliable forecasts of student mobility flows at the micro level, make medium- to long-term decisions at the university level, and implement sustainable strategic orientation. Therefore, this article uses different models to estimate interactions to improve the forecast of the regional distribution of students in Germany under data limitations. Using publicly available data on high school graduates and historical data on student flows between German counties, we show that radiative models with parameters are best suited to predict student flows at the level of German counties. Among parameter-free models, the population-weighted odds model yields the best results.
Highlights:
- Forecasting student mobility flows in Germany
- Model comparison between gravity and radiation models
- Implications for the development of universities
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References
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