Vol. 15 No. 4 (2024): (Issue in progress)
Research Article

Changes in Fuel Prices and the Use of Public Transport: Insights from the European Union following the Invasion of Ukraine

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André Alves
Centre of Geographical Studies and Associate Laboratory TERRA, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisbon, 1600-276 Lisbon, Portugal
Nuno Marques da Costa
Centre of Geographical Studies and Associate Laboratory TERRA, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisbon, 1600-276 Lisbon, Portugal
Bivariate relationship between changes in fuel prices and mobility from 31 January to 31 May 2022 (Source: calculated Directorate-General for Energy (2022) and Google (2022))
DOI: https://doi.org/10.48088/ejg.a.alv.15.4.232.243
Categories

Published 2024-10-15

Keywords

  • public transport,
  • mobility patterns,
  • fuel price,
  • transport geography,
  • Russian-Ukrainian war,
  • Google community mobility reports
    • ...More
    Less

How to Cite

Alves, André, and Nuno Marques da Costa. 2024. “Changes in Fuel Prices and the Use of Public Transport: Insights from the European Union Following the Invasion of Ukraine”. European Journal of Geography 15 (4):232-43. https://doi.org/10.48088/ejg.a.alv.15.4.232.243.

Copyright (c) 2024 André Alves, Nuno Marques da Costa

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Received 2024-06-10
Accepted 2024-10-14
Published 2024-10-15

Abstract

Rising fuel prices are known to affect public transport (PT) demand. However, the impact of the oil market inflation and subsequent energy crisis following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on mobility behaviour in Europe has received little attention. This study examines shifts in fuel prices and PT mobility across 25 European Union countries between February and May 2022. Weekly variations in PT mobility were correlated with diesel and gasoline prices, and a multiple linear regression was conducted to assess the influence of contextual factors in explaining variations in PT usage. The results indicate a significant increase in PT mobility across all countries after February 2022, which was positively associated with rising fuel prices. Approximately 84% of the variance in mobility was explained, with more pronounced increases observed in countries characterised by lower telecommuting prevalence, higher housing costs relative to household income, greater price differentials between gasoline and diesel, lower adoption of alternative fuels, and higher motorisation rates. These findings suggest that the surge in fuel prices, driven by the 2022 energy crisis, may have stimulated an increase in transit ridership.

Highlights:

  • The rise in PT usage in the EU correlated with higher fuel prices post-Ukraine invasion.
  • Temporal and spatial patterns varied across countries, indicating contextual influences.
  • Five key indicators explained disparities in PT mobility changes among EU countries.
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